El Niño Is Now Very Strong: PAGASA's November Outlook Puts Davao City in Drought by March 2027

When we wrote about El Niño and Davao's dry months in September, the weather bureau's outlook stopped in February. It had Davao City heading for dry conditions by the end of January and a dry spell by the end of February, and the advisory then in force described a moderate to strong El Niño.

PAGASA has now gone further on both counts. Its El Niño Advisory No. 6, issued on 3 November, says a very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific. The drought outlook issued the same day reaches to April 2027, and for March and April it lists Davao City in meteorological drought.

In the outlooks we have followed since September, that is the first time the city itself appears in the bureau's most serious category. It is also a forecast, and it comes with one piece of good news for the next few weeks. Both deserve a careful read.

What the November advisory says

The El Niño Advisory No. 6, signed by PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel T. Servando, is short. El Niño is very strong, forecast models expect it to continue until the first half of 2027, and it may reach its peak by the end of 2026. PAGASA's ENSO alert page, updated on 4 November, repeats the same assessment.

The advisory gives the usual explanation of what that means: El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which may lead to dry spells and droughts in some areas. It also adds a caution that matters in a typhoon-exposed country. Episodes of heavy rainfall can still occur when tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems pass.

PAGASA has issued these advisories monthly since June, and the full series shows the steady escalation. In June the bureau said El Niño was emerging. By September it was moderate to strong and expected to intensify. Now it is very strong.

October was kinder to Mindanao than to Luzon

The advisory's assessment of October is worth knowing, because it explains why Davao has not yet felt much of this. According to PAGASA, most provinces in Mindanao had near to above normal rainfall in October. The exceptions were Sarangani, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte and the Dinagat Islands, which recorded below-normal rain. Most of Luzon, by contrast, was below to way below normal.

The month was not quiet. Super Typhoon Rosal crossed the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 20 to 24 October, and PAGASA declared the onset of the northeast monsoon, the amihan, on 27 October. Nationwide, five provinces were in meteorological drought at the end of October, eleven under a dry spell and ten under a dry condition. None of the Davao provinces was on any of those lists. In Mindanao, only Agusan del Norte, the Dinagat Islands, Sarangani and Surigao del Norte appeared, all under a dry spell.

Temperatures were warm but not record-breaking. PAGASA recorded 20.3°C to 35.6°C in the lowland areas of Mindanao in October and reported no historical extreme anywhere in the country.

November: Davao City is one of three exceptions

The outlook for this month is the good news. PAGASA expects way below to below normal rainfall across most of the country in November, except in Davao del Norte, Davao City and Agusan del Norte, which are likely to see near normal rainfall. The bureau also expects one or two tropical cyclones to develop in or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the month.

The forecast temperature range for the lowlands of Mindanao is 20.2°C to 38.0°C. That upper figure is a range limit, not a daily expectation, but it is a reminder that a near-normal rain month can still be a hot one.

For anyone in the city, November is therefore not the month to worry about water. It is the month to prepare, while the rain still comes.

The outlook to April 2027, month by month

The real change is in the dry spell and drought outlook. PAGASA built it from rainfall observed up to 1 November and its latest six-month rainfall forecast, and it covers November 2026 to April 2027. For the Davao area it reads as follows.

• •By the end of November 2026: no Davao province listed. In Mindanao, only the Dinagat Islands, Sarangani and Surigao del Norte are expected under a dry spell.
• •By the end of December: dry condition in 25 Mindanao provinces, including Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental and Davao Oriental. Davao City and Davao del Norte are not on the list.
• •By the end of January 2027: dry condition in Davao City, Davao del Norte and Agusan del Norte. The other Davao provinces move up to a dry spell.
• •By the end of February: dry spell in Davao City and in 16 other Mindanao provinces, with 14 Mindanao provinces in drought, mostly in the west and north of the island and on the islands of the south.
• •By the end of March: drought in Davao City and in every one of the 31 Mindanao areas PAGASA lists. Nationwide, the outlook puts 87 provinces in drought: 40 in Luzon, 16 in the Visayas and 31 in Mindanao.
• •By the end of April: drought in Davao City continues.

Read as a whole, the timeline is consistent with what PAGASA forecast in September for January and February. What is new is that the outlook now runs past February, and the months beyond it are the worst. On this forecast, the dry period in Davao would peak in March and April 2027, well after the El Niño itself is expected to peak at the turn of the year.

What the categories mean

PAGASA's terms are defined by rainfall, and the definitions are on its climate advisories page.

• •A dry condition is two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, meaning 21 to 60 percent less than average.
• •A dry spell is three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, or two consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, meaning more than 60 percent less than average.
• •A drought is three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.

Two things follow. A meteorological drought is measured against the city's own average, so it describes rain that is missing, not taps that have run dry. And because the outlook is updated every month, the provinces and the months can still move in either direction. PAGASA issues the advisory monthly, so the next update is expected in early December.

What the city is doing

Davao City started preparing before the November advisory. The city's Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, chaired by Mayor Sebastian Z. Duterte, met on 9 October and directed city offices to strengthen their preparedness for what the city's report calls a possible Super El Niño.

The council's instructions cover the obvious sectors. The City Health Office is to strengthen monitoring for heat-related illnesses and keep public health advisories ready. The City Veterinarian's Office is to protect livestock from extreme heat. On water, the Davao City Water District and the Davao City Bulk Water Supply Project are readying existing water sources to supplement supply should river levels and flows decline, and residents are asked to use water responsibly.

The farm side is the most concrete. According to the City Agriculturist's Office, it has water pumps, power sprayers and two water tankers on standby at the Malagos nursery, with two tractors to pull the tankers to areas short of water. As of October there were 700 rainwater catchment units in the city's upland areas. The office also runs seven solar-powered irrigation systems in Paquibato, Toril and Calinan, set up since 2023.

The city's disaster office has asked residents for something simpler. On 8 October, CDRRMO head Alfredo Baloran urged Dabawenyos to make water conservation a daily habit, to use the remaining rainy weeks to plant vegetables in their backyards, to avoid prolonged sun exposure and to stay hydrated. He also asked barangays to stop burning in the mountains to prevent grass and forest fires, a risk that rises sharply in a long dry spell.

What it means if you live here

The practical steps from September still stand, and the new timeline mostly tells you when they matter.

Water storage is a building question. A condo or house with its own tank and pump rides out interruptions that a unit on direct mains pressure does not. If you are choosing where to live in the coming months, ask how many hours or days the building can run on stored water and whether the pump has backup power. The neighbourhood guide helps with the area; the viewing has to answer the tank question. What you do with the water once it arrives, and whether to drink it straight from the tap, is covered in our piece on dengue, water and food.

The cooling budget belongs in the first quarter. If the driest months are March and April, they are also likely to be the months with the most hours of air conditioning. How the Davao bill is built is explained in our piece on air conditioning, brownouts and the power bill, and who is still protected from a disconnection for the November and December bills is in our Davao Light update. Nobody has published a forecast linking El Niño to next year's power rates, so we will not invent one.

Heat is a health issue, not just a comfort issue. The city's health office is preparing for heat-related illness for a reason. If you are older, or have heart or lung conditions, plan your errands for the early morning, keep water with you and know where your nearest hospital is before you need it.

Do not write off the rain. El Niño does not cancel the typhoon season. PAGASA expects one or two cyclones this month, and Davao's position below the main typhoon belt does not rule out heavy downpours. A dry year can still have a wet week.

Watch the December update. The outlook issued in early December will show whether the March drought holds, moves earlier or eases. Until then, the honest summary is this: November looks normal for Davao City, January and February will be drier than usual, and on PAGASA's current forecast, March and April 2027 are the months to plan around.